Thinking outside the box.

[DaleMX]

A good friend sent me this. I thought I would pass it along. He got it from someone else so I dont know who's father told the story.

 

Here is a story that my father (now deceased) told to me 35 years ago. I

believe that it is true. It also has relevance for the science hobbyist.

 

In 1940-1941, British fighters and bombers were getting beaten up over

the English Channel and France by German antiaircraft gunners and fighter

aircraft. The Brits realized that they were losing more pilots than

could be replaced on a timely basis. So the High Command funded a study

to find the best way to armor their aircraft. They hired a mixture of

military engineers and even a few academic scientists. Even though

academia and the military usually don't mix, the High Command was

desperate to find a solution to the problem.

 

After months of research, the military engineers, doing what they do best

(i.e., Linear Thinking), turned in their final report, in which they

concluded that there was no effective way to armor military aircraft

without slowing the aircraft down to such an extent that it becomes

useless as a military weapon. The crew compartment needed to be armored,

as did the engine compartment, the fuel tanks, the hydraulic controls,

and maybe even some weapons. The engineers concluded that an effective

armor was impossible because of weight considerations.

 

The High Command then called in a long haired, scruffy looking

physicist/statistician from Oxford University. Immediately, the

scientist asked to be taken to a hanger where the planes were being

repaired. As soon as he entered the hanger, the scientist disappeared

underneath one of the aircraft. After about an hour, his military

escorts became impatient and left the scientist alone, believing that

"this longhaired Oxford Boy" was a fruitcake.

 

Fast forward two weeks.

 

The scientist sends in his final report, in which he apologized for being

so slow in his research. Included in his report were the schematics of

each type of British warplane, with seemingly random, irregular shaped

shadings on each plane. These shadings represented the areas where armor

needed to be placed. According to the scientist, little armoring was

necessary. More importantly, some parts that had critical subsystems

didn't need armoring at all, according to the scientist.

 

The High Command looked at the scientist's recommendation and laughed.

The armor's patchy, seemingly random distribution didn't make any sense,

so they called the scientist in for a meeting.

 

"You clearly don't understand how planes fly or how they need to be

protected", one British officer said with a smug tone. "You have to

protect the critical subsystems."

 

"That's not strictly true. I don't necessarily need to know that",

responded the scientist. The military brass were now totally convinced

that the scientist was nuts.

 

The scientist continued, "Consider that the only aircraft that I could

study were the aircraft that safely made it back to base. The aircraft

that failed are lying at the bottom of the English Channel, unavailable

for study. So I examined each surviving plane and statistically

tabulated the pattern of bullet holes. I reasoned that the areas that DO

NOT have any bullet holes are the places that need armor plating."

 

The High Command responded, "That's silly. Why protect the areas of the

plane that do NOT get shot up?"

 

The scientist responded, "Because on the aircraft that got shot down, I

predict that it is in those areas that you will see bullet holes. That

is the solution. It was a simple statistics problem."

 

Sure enough, the scientist was correct. British planes dredged from the

English Channel had bullet holes in places where the surviving planes

lacked bullet holes. The "Fruitcake From Oxford's" armor turned out to

be a success. Survivability of British aircraft jumped 50%.

 

Moral of the story: Don't limit your style of thinking. Not all

problems are solved by standard empirical means.

 

I hope you all have a Happy Hanukkah and a Merry Christmas.

[TheNeedForZ]

Man that's a really good story.

[Mikelly]

Good read, and an excellent lesson!

 

Mike