Italian Fishyness?

[johnc]

Phil, you're safety chart numbers are BS. For example, from a Car and Driver road test of a 1970 Datsun 240Z (June 1970 issue). They stopped the car from 80mph in 259 feet. Let's move up to 1984 and a Car and Driver road test of a 300ZX Turbo: It stopped from 70mph in 191 feet. Typical stopping distances for today's vehicle, tire, and ABS combinations from 60 mph are under 150 feet. Typical braking Gs are over 1 and I've seen 2.2Gs in my highly modified 240Z.

 

So, the Toyota (I think that's what it was) was spotted at 411 feet and let's say he was fired upon 1.5 seconds later at 279 feet. It finally stopped at 138 feet away which gave the driver 141 feet to stop the car from a speed around 60 mph. Entirely plausible.

 

Maybe the driver saw the hand signals and lifted off the throttle? Maybe the driver started braking .5 seconds before the soldiers opened fire after seeing the hand signals? Maybe the road was on a slight uphill so braking was better then average? Maybe the drive had extensive accident avoidance training so he knew how to stop a vehicle?

 

Obviously whoever was told to figure out a distance that corresponded to a speed of greater than 60 MPH failed to realize they were stopped at the end of this distance.

 

Ah yes, another conspiracy...

 

EDIT: Looking at the numbers again it appears there is a 1.5 second discrpency between sighting of the vehicle and brake application. I'm willing to bet that the soldiers on the ground made a mistake regarding where they spotted the vehicle. I wonder how they matched up the time signature on the satellite imaging with the soldier's reports?

[Guest Phil1934]

Her car wasn't a sports car. It appears to be a Toyota Corolla. Published stopping times for this car are 180' from 56MPH and 300' from 75 MPH. And if there are no reaction times, play http://www.iwaynet.net/~ggwiz/f/braking.htm

Back to straight math as figures don't lie.

In your scenario they travel 132' at 88 fps for 1.5 seconds then brake for 141' at an average speed of 44 fps. That's 4.7 seconds, but the car made the 273' in under 3 seconds. If they approached at 60 MPH and stopped instantly it would take 3.1 seconds! Obviously, a math error and a lot of photoshop work for nothing.

[Guest Phil1934]

Her car wasn't a sports car. It appears to be a Toyota Corolla. Published stopping times for this car are 180' from 56MPH and 300' from 75 MPH. And if there are no reaction times, play

http://www.iwaynet.net/~ggwiz/f/braking.htm

Back to straight math as figures don't lie.

In your scenario they travel 132' at 88 fps for 1.5 seconds then brake for 141' at an average speed of 44 fps. That's 4.7 seconds, but the car made the 273' in under 3 seconds. They would need to approach at 62 MPH and stop instantly! Obviously, a math error and a lot of photoshop work for nothing

[johnc]

Austin Bay (who has spent a lot of time over in Iraq) has the started on an anlysis of a supposedly leaked version of the US military's official investigation into this incident.

 

http://austinbay.net/blog/index.php?p=293

 

The supposed leaked document is here in unredacted form:

 

http://www.css-auth.com/Unclassified.html

 

E. (U) The Incident

 

(U) After arriving at BIAP from Italy in the late afternoon of 4 March 2005, and taking care of some administrative matters, Mr. Carpani and Mr. Calipari went to some undisclosed location in the Mansour District of Baghdad. (Annexes 104C, 105C). At approximately 2030 hours they recovered Ms. Sgrena and headed back toward BIAP. (Annexes 103C, 104C, 109C). Both agents made a number of phone calls to various officials during the drive. (Annex 104C). Mr. Carpani was mostly talking to his colleague, Mr. Castilletti, who was waiting for them outside of BIAP near Checkpoint 539. He updated Mr. Castilletti on his location and discussed arrangements at the airport. (Annex 105C). Mr. Carpani, who was driving, had to slow down at one point due to a flooded underpass on Route Vernon. (Annexes 103C, 104C). Mr. Carpani, who had experience driving in Baghdad, did not have an alternate route to the airport planned.

 

2 (S//NF) 2 VOIP is a technology that allows telephone calls to be made using a broadband internet connection instead of a regular (analog) phone line.

 

29 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

 

(Annexes 104C, 105C). He was taking what he considered to be the most logical route to BIAP, but was not checking his speedometer. (Annex 105C). Neither he, nor Mr. Calipari, knew the on-ramp to Route Irish was blocked. (Annex 104C). Indeed, Mr. Carpani believed the road to the airport was open. (Annex 105C).

 

(U) At approximately 2045 hours the Soldiers at BP 541 were in the positions that they had been occupying since 1930 hours. They had successfully turned around 15-30 vehicles, with none getting more than a few meters beyond the Alert Line. (Annexes 77C, 79C, 81C, 83C, 87C, 132C). Specialist Lozano was in his turret, his M240B (on which he had last qualified just five days before (Annex 6G)) pointed down and to his left at a grassy area with Specialist Peck in the driver’s seat in the blocking vehicle. Specialist Mejia was in the driver’s seat of the overwatch vehicle with Sergeant Domangue in the turret. Sergeant O’Hara was sitting in the rear passenger’s seat of the overwatch vehicle, cleaning his protective glasses. Staff Sergeant Brown, the acting Platoon Sergeant, was seeking to determine how much longer they were to remain in position. As such, he was standing with Second Lieutenant Acosta near the overwatch vehicle, their backs to the on-ramp. (Annexes 79C, 83C, 128C, 129C, 130C, 131C, 132C, 133C, 134C). None of the Soldiers knew that the Italians were coming. (Annexes 116C, 117C, 118C, 119C, 120C, 121C, 122C).

 

(U) As the car approached the on-ramp to Route Irish, Mr. Carpani was on the cell phone updating Mr. Castilletti on their position and reporting that everything was going fine. (Annexes 104C, 105C). Though not in the habit of checking his speedometer, Mr. Carpani estimated his speed at 70-80 kph as he exited off of Route Vernon, heading toward the on-ramp to Route Irish. (Annex 105C). The courtesy light in the car was on and had been since picking up Ms. Sgrena in the Mansour District of Baghdad. (Annex 104C). Additionally, Mr. Carpani had his side window halfway open to listen for possible threats. (Annex 105C). Ms. Sgrena and Mr. Calipari were in the rear of the car talking to each other. (Annexes 103C, 105C). The atmosphere in the car was a mix of excitement over the recovery of Ms. Sgrena, and tension from the tasks yet to be completed. (Annex 140C).

 

(U) At approximately 2050 hours, Specialist Lozano saw a car approaching the on-ramp, approximately 140 meters from his position. (Annexes 79C, 134C, 144K). Specialist Lozano, holding the spotlight in his left hand, shined his spotlight onto the car before it arrived at the Alert Line. (Annexes 79C, 85C). At this time, Sergeant Domangue acquired the vehicle’s headlights and saw the spotlight shining on it. He then focused his green laser pointer onto the windshield of the car as it reached the Alert Line. (Annexes 87C, 129C). Both Specialist Lozano and Sergeant Domangue perceived the car to be traveling in excess of 50 mph (and faster than any other vehicles that evening). (Annexes 79C, 87C, 129C, 134C).

 

(U) The car crossed the Alert Line still heading towards the Soldiers’ position without slowing down. Specialist Lozano continued to shine the spotlight, and shouted at the vehicle to stop, a fruitless effort, but an instantaneous reaction based on his training.

 

30 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

 

(Annexes 85C, 130C). Without slowing down, the car continued toward the Warning Line with the spotlight and laser still on it. (Annexes 79C, 87C, 129C).

 

(U) The car continued to approach at a high rate of speed, coming closer to the Soldiers than any other vehicle that evening. (Annexes 79C, 87C, 129C). When the car got to the Warning Line, Specialist Lozano, while still holding the spotlight in his left hand, used his right hand to quickly fire a two to four round burst into a grassy area to the on-coming vehicle’s right (the pre-set aiming point) as a warning shot. (Annexes 79C, 87C, 125C, 129C, 134C).

 

(U) The vehicle maintained its speed as it went beyond the Warning Line. (Annexes 77C, 79C, 81C, 83C, 129C, 131C, 132C, 133C). Staff Sergeant Brown, a New York City Police Officer trained in vehicle speed estimation, estimated the car was traveling at 50 mph and believed that it would not be able to stay on the road around the curve at that speed. (Annex 83C). Specialist Lozano dropped the spotlight and immediately traversed his weapon from his left to his right, without having to move the turret, to orient on the front of the car. With both hands on the weapon, he fired another burst, walking the rounds from the ground on the passenger’s side of the vehicle and towards the car’s engine block in an attempt to disable it. (Annexes 77C, 79C, 81C, 83C, 87C, 129C, 131C, 132C, 133C). The rounds hit the right and front sides of the vehicle, deflated the left front tire, and blew out the side windows. (Annexes 104C, 105C, 132C, 1I).

 

(U) Mr. Carpani reacted by saying into the phone, “they are attacking us,” not knowing who was shooting at him. (Annexes 103C, 104C, 105C). He stepped on the brakes, curled up on the left side of the car, and dropped the phone. (Annexes 104C, 105C). Specialist Lozano stopped firing as he saw the car slow down and roll to a stop. Approximately four seconds had elapsed between the firing of the first round and the last round, and no more than seven seconds from the time the car crossed the Alert Line until it came to a stop. (Annexes 77C, 79C, 81C, 83C, 87C, 129C, 131C, 132C, 133C, 134C). The car came to a stop near the middle of the on-ramp, such that the first Jersey barrier was aligned with the vehicle between the front and back doors. (Annexes 79C, 83C, 105C).

 

H. (U) Findings

 

(U) Second Lieutenant Acosta was under a time constraint to establish the BP quickly and expected to be in position for a very limited time, i.e., no more than 15-20 minutes. Further, the position was on a tight curve that caused Second Lieutenant Acosta to make less than optimal choices in positioning his vehicles. Still, Second Lieutenant Acosta properly considered and employed the factors of METT-TC in deciding where to emplace his two vehicles so as to provide vehicle stand-off, force protection, overwatch field of view, and clear line of sight for the spotlight operator. From 15-30 vehicles were turned around without incident based upon how the position was established. (Annexes 77C, 79C, 81C, 83C, 87C, 1F, 2F, 3F).

 

(U) At the time of the incident, there were only two HMMWVs, and seven U.S. military personnel, at BP 541. Both the blocking vehicle and the overwatch vehicle were positioned on the on-ramp, facing Route Irish. There were no other vehicles, or Soldiers in the immediate vicinity of BP 541, and the BP could not be seen by any other BPs on Route Irish. (Annexes 77C, 79C, 81C, 83C, 85C, 87C, 89C, 117C, 118C, 119C, 120C, 121C, 122C, 123C, 124C).

 

(U) The Soldiers had a heightened sense of awareness because of the two VBIED BOLOs, one for a black car, another for a white car. (Annexes 74C, 77C, 13E, 14E). Given the number of vehicles that had been stopped and turned around, and this awareness of VBIEDs, it is highly unlikely that Specialist Lozano was not paying attention. Further, Specialist Lozano had recently rotated into the position, replacing Specialist Peck, to ensure that there was a fresh set of eyes in the turret. (Annexes 79C, 85C). Rotating qualified personnel in and out of the turret to maintain alertness was a wise decision by the BP 541 leadership.

 

(U) Ineffective battle tracking procedures (communications, log posting, and information sharing) at the 1-76 FA TOC caused A Company, 1-69 IN to be left in their blocking positions longer than expected. The night of 4 March 2005 was the last night of the Left Seat Ride for 1-76 FA, and 4-5 March 2005 was the first full duty day for the unit. (Annexes 59C, 63C, 97C).

 

(U) The spotlight and green laser pointer had proven effective in stopping and turning around vehicles before the car with the Italians arrived at the on-ramp. Many of the vehicles, though, screeched their tires when stopping. While effective for accomplishing the mission, the spotlight and laser pointer may not be the best system from a civilian point of view. (Annexes 77C, 79C, 81C, 83C, 87C, 132C)

 

(U) Specialist Lozano did not drop the spotlight until after he fired the warning shots, then immediately transitioned to two hands on his weapon as he fired the disabling shots. (Annexes 79C, 83C, 85C, 87C).

 

35 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

 

(U) Specialist Lozano spotlighted the car before it reached the Alert Line, fired warning shots as it reached the Warning Line, and fired on the vehicle in an attempt to disable it immediately after it crossed the Warning Line. (Annexes 79C, 87C, 129C, 134C).

 

(U) Specialist Lozano was the only one to fire his weapon. (Annexes 77C, 79C, 81C, 83C, 85C, 87C, 89C).

 

(U) The car was traveling at approximately 50 mph as it crossed the Warning Line. (Annex 83C).

 

(U) Mr. Carpani did not apply his brakes until after the rounds began striking the car. (Annexes 104C, 105C).

 

(U) Given the cyclic rate of fire of the M240B, Specialist Lozano’s expertise with the weapon, and that only 11 rounds struck the vehicle with only five of those impacting the front of the car, it is highly unlikely that any shots were fired after the car came to a stop. (Annexes 79C, 6G, 1I, 3M).

 

(U) Both the blocking and overwatch vehicles were moved after the incident as directed by Captain Drew to transport Ms. Sgrena to the Combat Support Hospital. Both vehicles were needed to provide security for the move to the hospital. (Annexes 74C, 77C).

 

(U) The gunner complied with the Rules of Engagement. After operating the spotlight, and perceiving the on-coming vehicle as a threat, he fired to disable it and did not intend to harm anyone in the vehicle. (Annexes 79C, 83C).

 

(U) There were a number of unrelated events that had a role in the incident. These were: (1) bad weather forcing a VIP to convoy on Route Irish that evening vice the preferred method of traveling by helicopter; (2) communications problems involving a unit new to the AOR that caused the Soldiers to be left in position longer than expected; (3) the recovery of Ms. Sgrena being pushed back daily, for several days, to 4 March 2005; (4) the Italians did not know the Soldiers were at the on-ramp, and were not expecting any such roadblocks; and (5) the Soldiers did not know the Italians were traveling to BIAP. (Annexes 51C, 52C, 57C, 59C, 60C, 61C, 63C, 97C, 104C, 105C, 107C, 109C, 116C, 117C, 118C, 119C, 120C, 121C, 122C).

 

(U) Mr. Carpani was driving faster than any other vehicle observed by the Soldiers that evening. He failed to stop for the spotlight since he was not expecting a roadblock. Additionally, he was dealing with multiple distractions including talking on the phone while driving, the conversation in the back seat, trying to listen for threats, driving on a wet road, focusing on tasks to be accomplished, the need to get to the airport, and the excited and tense atmosphere in the car. (Annexes 104C, 105C, 125C, 140C). Any one of these would have affected his reaction time.

[johnc]

And the Italian version is being published, although I can't find a link to their offcial report:

 

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20050502/D89RAH802.html

 

ROME (AP) - Italian investigators blamed U.S. military authorities for failing to signal there was a checkpoint ahead on the Baghdad road where American soldiers killed an Italian agent, and concluded that stress, inexperience and fatigue played a role in the shooting, according to a report released Monday.

 

The probe found no evidence that the March 4 killing of intelligence agent Nicola Calipari was deliberate.

 

The Italians challenged the American contentions that the car was traveling more than 50 mph, saying it was going half that speed. But, despite their refusal to sign off on the U.S. report that the soldiers bore no blame for the death, the Italian investigators didn't object to many of the American findings of fact...

 

 

"It is likely that the state of tension stemming from the conditions of time, circumstances and place, as well as possibly some degree of inexperience and stress might have led some soldiers to instinctive and little-controlled reactions," said Italy's report....

 

The Italian report, written by two experts who had participated in the joint probe, said no measures were taken by U.S. officials to preserve the scene of the shooting. It said the car carrying Sgrena and the agents was removed before its position was marked, for example. The soldiers' vehicles also were moved.

 

"That made it impossible to technically reconstruct the event, to determine the exact position of the vehicles and measure the distances, and to obtain precise data defining the precise trajectory of the bullets, the speed of the car and the stopping distance," the report said....