supervolcano in Yellowstone?

[David K]

September 11, 2003—Part of America's Yellowstone National Park was closed to visitors on July 23 this year and remains closed today due to high ground temperatures and increased thermal activity in the park. National Park Superintendent Suzanne Lewis said that "A portion of the Norris Geyser Basin on the west side of the park has been closed." [1]

 

On August 7, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reported that scientists were planning to set up a temporary network of seismographs, Global Positioning System receivers and thermometers to monitor increasing hydrothermal activity in the Norris Geyser Basin and gauge the risk of a hydrothermal explosion. [2]

 

On August 10, the Denver Post reported that Liz Morgan, a U.S. Geological Survey research geologist had discovered a huge bulge underneath Yellowstone Lake that had risen 100 feet from the lake floor. The bulge is two thousand feet long and has the potential to explode at any time. Morgan was quoted as saying that "The inflated plain is a potential and serious hazard and possible precursor to a large hydrothermal explosion event." [3]

 

Then, on August 24th, the University of Utah Seismograph Station reported that a magnitude 4.4 earthquake occurred just 9 miles southeast of the southern entrance to Yellowstone National Park. USGS scientists agreed that the earthquake was "uncommon" in that it was a very shallow earthquake, occuring just 0.3 miles below the surface. [4]

 

Jacob Lowenstern, a researcher for the U.S. Geological Survey and scientist-in-charge of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory said: "Our goal is to understand what's driving this volcanic system, and are there indications it could be moving into a period of unrest? [5]

 

This worrying situation was confirmed on September 8 by Dr. Bruce Cornet, a geologist and paleobotanist with the USGS, who explained: "Steam pressure is apparently building again in Yellowstone, and hydrothermal fluids and steam are working their way up through fractures and vents. If more steam vents appear, that means a continuous pathway for pressure release has been established to the magma chamber. If that happens, the pressure in the magma chamber will continue to drop until it reaches a critical stage when the superheated water within the magma explodes. Unfortunately, as the steam venting subsides, there will be a false sense of security. People will think it was just another cyclical event, and the danger is over. But that will be the farthest from the truth. It will be the quiet before the storm." [6]

 

Initially this should be of little or no consequence to anyone apart from those planning to visit Yellowstone . . . except for one thing. Lurking beneath Yellowstone National Park is one of the most destructive natural phenomena in the world: a massive supervolcano.

 

Only a handful exist in the world but when one erupts the explosion will be heard around the globe. The sky will darken, black acid rain will fall, and the Earth will be plunged into the equivalent of a nuclear winter. It could push humanity to the brink of extinction.

 

Volcanoes have always been a threat to humanity. The Tambora eruption in Indonesia in 1815 killed more than 90,000 people, while the Krakatau eruption in 1883, also in Indonesia, killed 36,000. The last supervolcano to erupt was Toba in Sumatra 74,000 years ago. It created a global catastrophe that dramatically affected life on Earth. Toba blasted so much ash and sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere that it blocked out the sun, causing the Earth's temperature to plummet, and possibly reducing the population on Earth to just a few thousand people. For a long time scientists have known that volcanic ash can affect the global climate. The fine ash and sulphur dioxide blasted into the stratosphere reflects solar radiation back into space and stops sunlight reaching the planet. Temperatures drop dramatically and nothing grows, causing mass starvation.

 

Bill McGuire, professor of geohazards at the Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre at University College London, says that America's Yellowstone Park is one of the largest and most dangerous supervolcanoes in the world. "The Yellowstone volcano can be likened to a sleeping dragon," says Professor McGuire, "whose slow breathing brings repeated swelling and sinking of the Earth's crust in northern Wyoming and southern Montana."

 

Professor McGuire went on to explain that: "Many supervolcanoes are not typical hill-shaped structures but huge, collapsed craters called "calderas" that are filled with hot magma and are harder to detect. The Yellowstone supervolcano was detected in the Sixties when infra-red satellite photographs revealed a magma-filled caldera 85km long and 45km wide. It has been on a regular eruption cycle of 600,000 years. The last eruption was 640,000 years ago, so the next is long overdue."

 

Volcanologists have been tracking the movement of magma under the park and have calculated that in parts of Yellowstone the ground has risen over seventy centimetres, almost two and a half feet, since 1923, indicating a massive swelling underneath the park.

 

"The impact of a Yellowstone eruption is terrifying to comprehend." says Professor McGuire. "Magma would be flung 50 kilometres into the atmosphere. Within a thousand kilometres virtually all life would be killed by falling ash, lava flows and the sheer explosive force of the eruption. One thousand cubic kilometres of lava would pour out of the volcano, enough to coat the whole of the USA with a layer 5 inches thick. The explosion would be the loudest noise heard by man for 75,000 years."

 

The long-term effects would be even more devastating. The thousands of cubic kilometres of ash that would shoot into the atmosphere would block out light from the sun, making global temperatures collapse. This is called a nuclear winter. A large percentage of the world's plant life would be killed by the ash and the drop in temperature. The resulting change in the world's climate would devastate the planet, and scientists know that another eruption is due - they just don't know when.

 

Michael Rampino, a geologist at New York University, quoted in a BBC Horizon documentary on Supervolcanoes [7] three years ago explained: "It's difficult to conceive of an eruption this big. It's really not a question of if it'll go off, it's a question of when, because sooner or later one of these large super eruptions will happen."

 

Professor McGuire says "There's nowhere to hide from the effects of a supervolcano. One day - perhaps tomorrow, perhaps in fifty years, perhaps in 10,000 - it will erupt; once again wreaking devastation across the North American continent and bringing the bitter cold of Volcanic Winter to Planet Earth. Mankind may become extinct."

 

So the rumblings currently going on underneath Yellowstone should be a warning not just to those who plan to visit the National Park, but to the whole world. If the increased thermal activity is the precursor to an eruption event, we may well be on the brink of the biggest catastrophe the modern world has ever witnessed.

[Guest Nic-Rebel450CA]

It's about time...

 

As Korn says "The only way to fix it is to flush it all away."

 

Have you ever wondered where scientists get these alleged facts for occurances that no one has witnessed? How do they know how much lava would flow?

[Datsun660z]

Have you ever wondered where scientists get these alleged facts for occurances that no one has witnessed? How do they know how much lava would flow?

 

Hey I can Remember the last time it erupted 640,000 years ago.

[denny411]

"IF" this is all true, I seriously doubt there is anything that can be done to stop it.

I have my doubts about the scientists doom and gloom predictions. As already stated... How do they really know when the last eruption was?

[Guest Psilocybian]

I'm no scientist, but I think they can test the soil for traces of volcanic substances, and then date it.. so they can get a good idea of when the last eruption was. Maybe based on the acidity of the soil they can tell how far away the same ash blew..

 

i'm talking out my ass i dunno

 

i'd actually like to read more of this, any site?

Great info

[johnc]

That was an amazingly biased article. They only preached gloom, doom, and fear. Sounds remarkably like the Global Warming predictions we keep hearing.

 

Professor McGuire says "There's nowhere to hide from the effects of a supervolcano. One day - perhaps tomorrow, perhaps in fifty years, perhaps in 10,000 - it will erupt; once again wreaking devastation across the North American continent and bringing the bitter cold of Volcanic Winter to Planet Earth. Mankind may become extinct."

 

This guy sounds like the lab coated scientist in a really bad 1950s sci-fi movie. I guess since Nuclear Winter has been proven false the Chicken Littles have to come up with some other life destroying scenario - Volcanic Winter!

 

As Elmer Fudd once said, "Be afwaid, be vewy, vewy, afwaid!"

[tannji]

What was that about nuclear winter proven false???

 

tannji

[Guest Psilocybian]

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/new.html

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/gallery_imagemap.html

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/08/0828_wireyellowstone.html

 

Some good info here too

 

I'd rather not find out of a nuclear winter is true or not.. but physics taught me how scary those god damn things are, there are definatley more side effects globally then radiation moving along the jetstream, that and mass destruction of course, and unuseable land for hundreds/thousands of years. Anyways.. bombs such as the hiroshima nuke.. that was one megaton I believe, they have them sitting at 125-150 if not bigger now.

 

Oh this crazy world..

 

in any case.. I'll just drive away to safety in my sexy Z lol

[johnc]

What was that about nuclear winter proven false???

 

Mt. Pinatubo in the Phillipeans put more "stuff" into the atmosphere then the most pessimistic estimate of the detonation of all the world's nuclear weapons. And most people forget that there have been over 250 nuclear weapons detonated on, under, and above this planet since 1945.

[johnc]

Anyways.. bombs such as the hiroshima nuke.. that was one megaton I believe, they have them sitting at 125-150 if not bigger now

 

Hiroshima was in the 100 kiloton range if memory serves me.

 

As I understand it, the practical limit for a fusion weapon is about 100 megatons. The US and particularly the Russians have detonated larger devices but the yield drops off exponentially because the weight of the atmosphere above the explosion has a large tamping effect. I've also heard that the large "city killing" weapons are being phased out now that the GPS system is available.

 

And always remember, nuclear weapons have saved millions of lives.

[Guest Psilocybian]

What was that about nuclear winter proven false???

 

Mt. Pinatubo in the Phillipeans put more "stuff" into the atmosphere then the most pessimistic estimate of the detonation of all the world's nuclear weapons. And most people forget that there have been over 250 nuclear weapons detonated on, under, and above this planet since 1945.

 

yes.. it would take quite a few on land at anyone time.. anyways, i'm sure nukes would trigger earthquakes depending on where they were dropped..

honestley id rather face a massive super volcano then a nuke..

 

is there anyway to successfully shoot a nuke out of the atmosphere without damaging something though :s

[JMortensen]

Tool said "The only way to fix it is to flush it all away". That's more about LA, though. Great song, aenima. I walked around saying "Learn to swim" to @$$holes in LA for about a year after that came out. Any band with a lead singer named Maynard has my vote...

 

All we need now are some zealots to start spouting about how the Yellowstone volcano portends the coming of Armageddon, then we'll have ALL the freaks out and about.

 

What about the 50 mile wide asteroid colliding with earth? Have we all lost respect for asteroids?

 

Nuclear weapons, supervolcanoes, super underwater landslides causing 1000 meter waves, germs, AIDS, global warming, terrorism, World War III, asteroids, religious armageddon, the end of the millenium (in the wrong damn year no less). Seems there's a cause for every doomsdayer in today's society. I think that there is some underlying weakness in the human psyche that just wants to believe that we are at the end of all existence, and that we will be the last humans on the planet. I know a guy who bought land in AZ because of Nostradamus's predictions being interpreted to say CA was going to fall into the ocean. He was gonna have beachfront property! Science is now giving us some plausable reasons for the fear that has been instilled in us since the dawn of religion.

 

I do agree with JohnC, though. If you look at the number of people killed in war since the Nuke, it has definitely saved millions of people. And every volcano eruption releases 1000's of times the amount of chloroflourocarbons that the US releases in hairspray. I want my CFC's back, and my damn R12 shouldn't cost $150/lb too.

 

My $.02,

 

Jon

[tannji]

I suspect that the amount of ash and particulate matter that the Yellowstone volcano would eject into the atmosphere exceeds by orders of magnitude anything that Mt. Pinatubo is capable of. We have documented beyond a shadow of a doubt mass extinctions in the planetary record. Mount St Helen's eruption was a "Large" event, and deposited ash across the country, as well as affecting weather patterns measurably around the world. Yet that eruption would be an insignificant pimple on Yellowstone's re-occuring events. The event and its affects are bordering on the inconceivable. I doubt that there would be very many survivors on the North American continent, and I doubt that life would be even remotely normal anywhere else.

I was wondering where it had been documented that nuclear winter had been proven invalid? I spent some time in the Navy, (Nuke Sub school) and have some familiarity with the concept. To my knowledge, most of the opinions opposed to the concept of Nuclear Winter were under the umbrella of the Military Industrial Complex = ) Nuclear winter as caused by weapon usage is extremely unlikely in actuality. However, the factors that make it unlikely, ie; detonation of the majority of the nuclear arsenal, are outweighed by the power of another Yellowstone eruption, which would make the "might" of our arsenal look lilliputian in comparison.

 

tannji

[JMortensen]

Bumper sticker idea: Science--the new anti-religion religion.

 

Lets not all live in fear. Nothing that I'm going to do is gonna save me from an eruption of that magnatude. I'm too close. And the last thing I want to do is to move to Australia and die slowly and painfully.

 

Boy, come to think of it, you Australians are SCREWED!

 

Moving on with my life,

 

Jon

[Guest Psilocybian]

as long as im in my Z loaded sitting next to the girl i love when i die, im set

[Sparky]

Im not 100% sure on this, But I believe that yellowstone is the worlds largest RHYOLITIC volcano, Its true that it is a caldera, but that is an end result of past eruptions.

 

 

one of my profs. was a volcanologist, and he went into great detail about past mass extinctions caused by volcanic activity. Now that is some scary shit, not because it did happen, but because it WILL happen again.

 

If such an event occurred. I wouldnt be too worried about that populations of 1st world countries, its the 3rd world ones that would suffer the greatest loss. even the losses of the US would pail in comparison to the losses of India, Africa, Mexico ETC. no immediate losses, but long term effects on agriculture dependant regions. especially those of post-colonial control.

 

anywho....I was going to go on and on, but i think i would rather not think about the end of my life. just live in it now.

[Jay1970Z]

I'm pretty sure we have nothing to worry about, I'm not going to run scared because some scientist says I'm going to die someday, I already knew that was going to happen eventually.

[Kevin Shasteen]

Well, all I can say is that Perception is everything and hind sight is 20/20.

 

I too didnt care to get caught up in the hype of doom and gloom-so I decided to do some research. As you should know Yellowstone, the "Super-Volcano", is being touted as 1500-2500 times larger than Mt. St.Helens.

 

Also, the magma loci depth at Mt. St.Helens was only .5 km when the Scientist were thinking that "it would not erupt" and Yellowstone's magma loci depth is currently 3.7 km. The difference is that Yellowstone, as said earlier, is a "Super" Volcano, so the ratio for concern should be scaled up proportionally.

 

I found this timeline of Mt. St.Helens on the net: here it is,

 

Timeline of Mt. St.Helens:

 

1) 1978 - US Geological Survey's (USGS) Dwight Crandell & Donald Mullineaux warn that Mt.St.Helens has been more active and explosive during the last 4,500 years than any other volcano in the US.

 

2) Mar 15, 1980: After a 5 year period in which the mountain had 44 earthquakes (e-quakes hereinafter), Mt.St.Helens enters a week in which 100 are recorded.

 

3) Mar 21: A magnatude 4.2 e-quake north of the summit triggers an avalanche

 

4) Mar 24: The mountain experiences about 20 e-quakes

 

5) Mar 25: Five e-quakes exceeding 4.0 occur in one hour. Forest Service officials close the Spirit Lake Info Ctr, access to the mountain above the treeline, and several roads leading up the mountain. The FAA restricts flight above the volcano. A large crack appears in the snow at the top of the mountain.

 

6) Mar 27: E-quake frequencies increase. A hole in the summit icecap appears followed by a loud boom, ash, smoke, a 4.7 e-quake, and a 7,000 ft tall black plume. A 200 ft crater is left behind.

 

6a) Hundreds of loggers, forest service employees, and residents are evacuated from a 1.5 mile radius. To accomodate mudflows and flooding-the Pacific Pwr & Light begin draining down three resovoirs to the south side of the volcano.

 

7) Mar 28: A dozen more e-quakes take place

 

8) Mar 30: Ninety-three explosions take place in one day.

 

9) Mar 31: Cowlitz County Commisoners declare a State Emergency. Cabin owners begin complaining of being restricted from their cabin homes.

 

10) Apr 1: Explosive plumes of steam and ash reach 20,000 ft. Scientist anticipate the magma explosions and ash from under the crust. 300 loggers return to work nortwest of the volcano.

 

11) Apr 3: Summit crater is now 1,500 ft wide and 300 ft deep

 

12) Apr 8: A series of explosions last 4 hours: the longest yet

 

13) Apr 19: Scientist notice the mountain's north flank is [bulging] outward

 

14) Apr 25-May 15: Scientists notice explosions subside, resume and subside again...this is the lull equal to the eye of a hurricane where all appears to be calm

 

15) May 17: The bulge begins to grow 5ft a day. USGS David Johnston replaces Harry Glicken at the monitoring station 5 miles north of the mountain.

 

16) May 18 (A.M.)

8:31.20sec's: A 5.1 e-quake occurs one mile beneath the volcano. Rock and Ice slide into the crater.

 

8:31:21sec's: The bulging north flank begins to ripple, churn, and slide away in blocks. A giant debris avalanche reaches speeds of 180mph.

 

8:32.45sec's: A huge explosion blasts out from where the north face slid

 

8:33.00sec's: A lateral blast of rock, ash, and hot gasses heads northward.

 

8:33.20sec's: The blast increases to nearly supersonic speed and overtakes the debris avalanche: burying Truman and 20 or so summer homes around the North Fork of the Toutle Valley.

 

NOTE: Within an 8 mile radius, virtually everything is obliterated or carried away. Inside this blast radius is Johnston's famous last words, "Vancouver! Vancouver! This is it!"

 

8:34am: Within a 15 mile radius, everything is flattened. Enough timber is blown down to build 300,000 two-bedroom cabins.

 

NOTE: 57 people die, mostly from suffocating on hot ash. They are the first recorded fatalities from volcanic activity in the continental US.

 

8:35am: Mudflows of volcanic debris and water begin at Pine Creek, Muddy River, Swift Creek, the Kalama River, and the south fork of the Toutle River.

 

8:47am: A vertical column of ash & steam rise in a mushroom cloud 12 miles above the volcano: this column creates lightning. Planes are seen circling the outer parameters of the column.

 

10:00am: Ash clouds reach Yakima. Darkness sensitive street lights turn on.

 

11:45am: Ash clouds reach Spokane.

 

1:00pm: Mudflows beign in the north fork of the Toutle River as water saturated parts of the avalanche slump and flow. More than [65 million] cubic yards of sediment are sent towards the lower Cowlitz and Columbia Rivers. The Columbia River navigational channel is cut from 39ft to only 13ft.

 

3:00pm: Toutle Creek rests at about 21ft above normal

 

5:30pm: Eruption subsides after ejecting [540 million] tons of ash.

 

17) May 29: Bathtub ringed mudlines in the region indicate mudflow had reached the 60 ft depth. Ash clouds arrive in the Central US.

 

18) May 25: A less energetic eruption puts ash 9 miles into the air, producing ash falls in the SW Washington and nearby Oregon.

 

19) June 1: After circling the globe multiple times most of the ash falls out of the upper atmosphere while the smallest fragments will remain in the jetstream for years to come.

 

20) June 12: After several weeks of occasional steam marked with a nighttime glow at the crater, the volcano erupts again and forms a dome of lava at the crater floor.

 

21) July 22: Several eruptions destroy most of the dome. The volcano continues to have periodic eruptions into 1984, with the dome rising more than 800ft. At the current rate of growth it will take a century for Mt.St.Helens to reach its former height.

 

Bottom Line: It only took 21 days for these events to unfold from the moment Scientists believed it was going to erupt to the moment it actually did erupt.

 

I agree about not looking at this as doom/gloom-rather take if for what it is: a Super-Volcano that for some unknown reason has decided to become active

 

Perception is everything.

 

Kevin,

(Yea,Still an Inliner not far enough away from Yellowstone)

[Muskrat]

Thats a really incridible story happening there, that alot of people still have no clue about.

If anyone finds out the exact date this thing is supposedly going to blow (if it ever does while I'm still alive), let me know. I want to watch.

[Datsun660z]

 

8:47am: A vertical column of ash & steam rise in a mushroom cloud 12 miles above the volcano: this column creates lightning. Planes are seen circling the outer parameters of the column.

 

10:00am: Ash clouds reach Yakima. Darkness sensitive street lights turn on.

 

 

Wow I remember that Sunday all to well, I was 12 years old and as

you can see by my user profile I live in Yakima. We could see

the mushroom cloud and lightning all the way here. The funny

thing about that day was is my right arm was in a cast. Well the

ash got in and would not come out. Talk about an Itch, I ended

up soaking my arm in the bath tub and ripping that sucker right off

only took about 1/2 an hour. (it was due to come off that next

Wednesday anyway) But that is how I remember that day,

couldnt go outside and play after they said on the news

"DO NOT GO OUTSIDE". Made a Really Boring Sunday.