utvolman99 Posted April 23, 2004 Share Posted April 23, 2004 This is a problem that I give in a class I help teach for my business. With the amount of engineers and such on this board I am curious to see how this goes over. Your on the gameshow "Lets Make a Deal". In front of your are three doors. - Behind one door is a new car - Behind another is donkey - Behind the last one there is nothing Okay, lets assume you want to car and not the donkey! You pick Door Number 2 After you pick the host opens Door Number 1 to show you that it's the empty one. Now here comes the question. Do you stick with your original pick of Door Number 2 or switch to Door Number 3? Oh yeah, and you have to be able to explane why! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akeizm Posted April 23, 2004 Share Posted April 23, 2004 I'd stay with 2, cause I have a feelin about that number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
utvolman99 Posted April 23, 2004 Author Share Posted April 23, 2004 I'd stay with 2, cause I have a feelin about that number. Not quite what I was looking for but I'm pretty sure you knew that already Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DatsunATX Posted April 23, 2004 Share Posted April 23, 2004 How you explain it it seems like you already know whats behind the door, so of course your not gonna change your answer.#2 or im just reading it wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
utvolman99 Posted April 23, 2004 Author Share Posted April 23, 2004 How you explain it it seems like you already know whats behind the door, so of course your not gonna change your answer.#2 or im just reading it wrong. Yeah, I think your reading it wrong or I wrote it wrong one of the two. You dont know whats behind the door. You pick a door at random. After you pick the host opens one of the other doors to show that that it's empty. That means that you can either stick with the door you originally chose or switch to the remaining unopened door. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pop N Wood Posted April 23, 2004 Share Posted April 23, 2004 Bayesian probabilities. I had a statistics course that computed the conditional probabilites for this very problem, but I can't say I believe the answer. It ignores the human factor. I also know why manhole covers are round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DatsunATX Posted April 23, 2004 Share Posted April 23, 2004 Yeah thats me reading it wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
utvolman99 Posted April 23, 2004 Author Share Posted April 23, 2004 Bayesian probabilities. I had a statistics course that computed the conditional probabilites for this very problem' date=' but I can't say I believe the answer. It ignores the human factor. I also know why manhole covers are round.[/quote'] You can PM me the answer if you like. I think this might be a little more simple than you think. I cant for the life of me figure out what the human factor would be? I have not heard the manhole cover question before but I would guess because manholes are round? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted April 23, 2004 Share Posted April 23, 2004 There is a real answer to this? I think that if a person were in that situation, they would hardly have the time, or the steady mind to truly analyze it and make the "right" choice. However, there are many things that could come into play. Some would say to stay with door 2 because that’s the first one you picked; therefore, subconsciously you’ve made the right choice. But what if the producers of the show had arranged the prizes in ascending order? That would mean that the donkey would be 2, and the car 3. Also, statistically speaking, don’t most people choose the middle of most things automatically? Having something to do with our brains attraction to proportionate things? That might also make the shows producers put the "joke" prize behind the most likely to be picked doors. Probably wrong, but it feels ooohhhh so right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
utvolman99 Posted April 23, 2004 Author Share Posted April 23, 2004 There is a real answer to this? I think that if a person were in that situation' date=' they would hardly have the time, or the steady mind to truly analyze it and make the "right" choice. However, there are many things that could come into play. Some would say to stay with door 2 because that’s the first one you picked; therefore, subconsciously you’ve made the right choice. But what if the producers of the show had arranged the prizes in ascending order? That would mean that the donkey would be 2, and the car 3. Also, statistically speaking, don’t most people choose the middle of most things automatically? Having something to do with our brains attraction to proportionate things? That might also make the shows producers put the "joke" prize behind the most likely to be picked doors. Probably wrong, but it feels ooohhhh so right.[/quote'] There is a right answer and it doesn't have anything to do with door numbers. It would be the same answer if you originally picked door number 1, 2 or 3. Also, this is not a trick question. There is a real scientific answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim240z Posted April 23, 2004 Share Posted April 23, 2004 I know the answer, but I am certain that this is YOUR homework assignment, and I refuse to do your homework for you! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted April 23, 2004 Share Posted April 23, 2004 There is a real scientific answer could he smell like donkey? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
utvolman99 Posted April 23, 2004 Author Share Posted April 23, 2004 I know the answer, but I am certain that this is YOUR homework assignment, and I refuse to do your homework for you! Sure you do... It's been a while since I've had homework. This is a question I use when training Six Sigma Greenbelts and it was from my Blackbelt instruction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
utvolman99 Posted April 23, 2004 Author Share Posted April 23, 2004 There is a real scientific answer could he smell like donkey? The answer is concrete and mathmatical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
280Zone Posted April 23, 2004 Share Posted April 23, 2004 I would retain my choice of door number 2. The first round I have a 1 in 3 chance of getting it right. The second round I have a 1 in 2 chance of getting it right. But changing midstream I have just reduced my odds to one in 5, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forrest Posted April 23, 2004 Share Posted April 23, 2004 Your odds improve if you switch to the other door. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poundz9oh9 Posted April 23, 2004 Share Posted April 23, 2004 ok, so why are manhole covers round?????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
280Zone Posted April 23, 2004 Share Posted April 23, 2004 They are round so they cannot fall into the hole. If they were square they would be able to fit in the hole. Triangular manhole covers would work too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BigWhyteDude Posted April 23, 2004 Share Posted April 23, 2004 hmm i would take door #3, The reason being that i have such bad luck i would automaticlly pick the wronge door to start with. There for, if i changed the door i wanted to # 3 i would still have a 50/50 chance at winning the car . Andrew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pop N Wood Posted April 24, 2004 Share Posted April 24, 2004 ok, so why are manhole covers round?????? Because people have round holes. The falling in answer is the correct one. I know people who were actually asked that question in a job interview. Human factor? Ever watched lets make a deal? They don't always open one door and offer the chance to switch doors. Thus there is one more probabilty in your Markov chain. Why are they asking me to choose again? Do they offer this choice more to the guy who has picked right? Or the one who has picked wrong? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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