So yesterday I began to remove the diff, and while trying to wrestle the half-shafts off, I noticed that the diff would move. Indeed one of the nuts holding the diff to the mustache bar was loose enough to allow the diff to move, and with an audible clunk, which is cause #5 in Jon M's authoritative post. About twenty years ago, I did remove and reattach the mustache bar when I replaced the isolators, so I guess I didn't torque it back properly. Note that this required much greater force than I had been exerting on the wheels in my prior clunk tests. So I will just put the diff back and after I get my new shifter bushings from MSA (or whatever they call themselves now), I'll drive it around the block to see if the clunk is gone.
I am still curious about the total backlash that I can see from either side-flange while holding the opposite side-flange steady, with the half-shafts removed, and without visible movement of the companion flange. There were some visible shavings on the drain plug when I removed it. I don't know if some amount is expected.
I guess I'll worry about it if there is still a clunk.